Voices: the CMB Blog

I start to fantasize about Thanksgiving Day as soon as I’ve finished the last of the Halloween candy.  From getting up at the crack of dawn, to saying grace, right up until the end of the fourth quarter of the last football game, Thanksgiving is filled with all kinds of wonderful rituals and traditions I look forward to every year.  But things DO change –just as our forefathers never could have dreamt of the magnificent poultry innovation we call Turducken—few would have guessed how Black Friday’s evolved in just the last decade.  Certainly the fact that many retailers will be starting their “Black Fridays” ON Thanksgiving has gotten no shortage of press. But it’s mobile’s impact on the shopping season that will likely decide the financial winners and losers.

This year, instead of grandma telling the kids (okay, me) to get my elbows off the table, she is going to start telling us all to get that “little computer” off the table. Instead of watching my wife and her sisters retire to the kitchen table with an armload of Black Friday circulars, I now expect them to form an Arthurian-style tablet round table, each sharing best-of links, Likes, and Tweets. Don’t get me wrong; in general, progress is good.  It is just going to change my ritual—instead of getting up ridiculously early to execute the extremely detailed list my wife has put together at retail, I’ll be staying up late with her to nail as many online deals as possible.

Welcome to the world of post-pie commerce, where you’ll barely have to shuffle from the dining room table to the sofa to start getting holiday deals—no more sneaking away to get your laptop (how 2008). The good news is, a lot of retailers are getting wise to some of the nuances of mobile technology’s impact on consumer habits. A recent survey from eBay found two thirds of holiday shoppers wanted the sales to begin after dinner, and that dinner usually ends a bit before 5:30. So eBay’s mobile app will be releasing out mobile only deals right after dinner on the east and west coasts. Smart.

So we know what 2012 will bring, but I’m willing to put my neck on the line (subtle turkey humor) to make a few more predictions for Thanksgiving 2013:

1. Checking in at Black Friday (Small Business Saturday, et al) with location-based deals/ coupons sent real time to mobile devices

2. Black Friday Gamified with manufacturers offering big sweepstakes prizes for those who buy their products at multiple retailers (e.g., win a chance at $10 million if you buy a Pepsi product from WalMart, Target and Lowes all between the hours of 4:00 AM and 8:00 AM)

3. Big data used agilely by retailers to adjust inventory and react to competition by surfing all of the Black Friday chatter sights to see what people are most excited about.

4. Someone trying to brand Sunday.  Maybe “ROBO (Research Online, Buy Offline) Sunday” so the shopping could be done efficiently while out attending church and visiting relatives.   

5. While parents retire to football watching and tablet tripping, the new kids ritual will be starting their holiday wish list via Amazon’s Santa App (or one like it) that will eventually be cleverly linked to parents’ accounts real time. 

And one more for good luck: some clever retailer(s) will seize the opportunity to brand the day before as "eWallet Wednesday" thereby taking advantage of early dismissals from schools and some jobs. The necessary investment in POS technology will pave the way for eWallets to surpass plastic as the tender of choice for Millennials by 2014.

In closing, despite the addition of more microprocessors and silicon chips, for me Thanksgiving will happily continue to be a day filled with thankful reflection, tryptophan-induced sleepiness, and a bottle of antacid  How will your Thanksgiving be changing, or not?

Brant Cruz is our resident segmentation guru and the Vice President of CMB’s eCommerce and Retail Practice.

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at CMB!

I recently learned the story of Vitaly Komar and Alex Melamid, two Russian-born conceptual artists who, as part of their People's Choice series, captured EXACTLY what America wanted in their paintings. To create “The Most Wanted” (1994) painting in America, Komar and Melamid gathered data from professional polling companies and actually gave the people what they asked for.

Naturally, by basing decisions unquestioningly on what consumers asked for, Komar and Melamid came up with a beauty. It’s a perfect combination of a pleasant blue sky, scenic mountains, frolicking deer, a picnicking family, and George Washington pondering life smack dab in the middle. It is a scene that has everything, and it's brilliant social commentary—but J.M.W. Turner it’s not.

Pointing out that a complete and unquestioning faith in numbers is a foolish exercise is nothing new. That’s especially true when you’re in the business of market research, consumer insights, or whatever you want to call us. I’m sure you’ve all heard the Henry Ford quote…“if I’d asked people how they’d like to see travel improved, they’d have told you: I want a faster horse.” But I’ve never come across anything that illustrated this better than “The Most Wanted” paintings. 

Besides giving me a chance to channel my inner art critic, the painting, and how it came to be, makes me think about how I design studies, analyze data, and think about its implications for my clients:

• Sometimes by listening to everyone, you’re hearing no one:  It’s tempting to want to hear from as many people as possible, but more opinions don’t necessarily translate into more insights. Just as Komar and Melamid's data translated into something a little ridiculous, trying to get everyone to answer every question won’t give you a clear picture of what you need to improve or the decisions you have to make. That’s why it’s critical to identify who you want to listen to and determine what you can learn from a specific segment.

• People can’t tell you EXACTLY what they want:  Consumer research that focuses solely on what customers say they want won’t tell you everything you should know. If you want to understand customer needs and develop products or services that meet them, you have to ask the questions that uncover what those needs are. Are people asking for mountains when they’re really seeking relaxation? Techniques like key driver analysis can help us understand customer needs and goals, and not just what they say they want.

• If you want insights, you’ll need context: Just like slapping a few artistic elements on a canvas won’t make a great painting, pasting all of your data points onto a PowerPoint won’t add up to insights you can use. I’m reminded to ask what else we know— is there other information or behavioral data is available and can help give us a fuller picture?

But above all the biggest takeaway for me, from “The Most Wanted” painting, is that thoughtful actionable research starts with the end in mind. We researchers can’t measure needs, wants, and preferences for specific elements in the design without any forethought about the final results of the potential outcomes.  

And if you’re curious here’s America’s Least Wanted Painting:

Marty is a Senior Project Manager on CMB's Retail Practice. You may be surprised to learn he earned his Master's in Marketing Research and not Art History.

See how CMB and South Street Strategy Group helped Tauck create a successful new travel product through a multi-phase multi-method approach. Click here to read the Case Study.

While thinking about the challenges of Big Data, I’m reminded of this simple chart from the neat site Indexed:

Because, as we get more and more data (and information) and move further to the right on the x-axis, we face more confusion throughout our work. We face questions like: how do we get a handle on all of the information?  How do we manage the volume to avoid information overload and confusion?  How do we find the right balance?

It’s an interesting challenge: initially, when I think about handling “big data” my eyes look to the right side of the chart and I think about how we can help clients to move the curve.  But I suspect there are many people and organizations who respond to the challenges of big data by simply staying on the left side.A colleague made the point that data quality and information relevance also play a big part in reducing confusion, and that’s very true.  Even when accounting for this, we still run into the challenge of having too much or too little of a good thing, so let’s just think about the volume in this discussion.

We’re always seeking to find that middle ground, but we choose to seek that middle ground from being on either the left or the right side.  It's tempting to think that one side is better than the other – for instance, it is better to err on the side of too much information and then reduce confusion by reducing the information (hence, my initial biased view). However, an equally strong argument can be made for erring on the side of too little information and then reducing confusion by seeking more information later.

I’m trying to figure out how Big Data plays in all of this.  Obviously, the information scale is rapidly increasing, leading to the potential for greater confusion. If you choose to err on the side of too much information, you will need to work harder to reduce information to find that optimal point; and if you err on the side of too little information, you will need to work harder to gather more information.

How might this play out in a project?  We find a lot of examples where managers have strong positions on the two sides of the chart:

Data Minimalists:These people like to “keep it simple” and desire just a few key measures and facts to make decisions.  If they don’t have enough information, they send the team back out to find more.

Data Maximizers: These folks need more data to make sure they haven't overlooked any important details or facts relevant to a decision.  If they don’t have the right information for a decision they send the team back for more analysis.

Neither side is “perfect,” and I suppose the optimal answer is to find the right balance of people who err on the right and who err on the left. Good managers know to balance the two sides and appreciate the benefits that each bring to the design and planning of a decision-support information system.

Jeff is a senior consultant, methodologist, and unabashed lover of charts. He's on a mission to make sense of Big Data and reduce confusion wherever it's found. He tweets occasionally at @McKennaJeff.

Have you ever experienced one of these data dilemmas? Tell us about it.

1. –You have so much data, it feels like you’re drinking from a fire hose.

2. –It’s too hard to “connect the dots” between your data sets.

3. –You’re paying for new studies to get data you already have…somewhere.

4. –It’s a struggle to get the data you need from your data warehouse.

Last week I attended the FutureM conference here in Boston. There were a lot of sessions to choose from and some great speakers, but one presentation was so simple it caught my eye. The session was called Future: Simplicity with Chris Colbert (@cmcolbert) from @hollandmark. The session was an hour and a half, which seemed long, but it flew by and I was even disappointed when it was over.  Chris is a definitely an engaging speaker, but it was the content of his presentation that gave me a lot to think about, both personally and professionally.  His session reminded me even with all the technology available, sometimes “it” just gets complicated; “it” being everything from crafting your value proposition to explaining a TV ad about Massachusetts' Question 2 to your 7 and 9 year old.  Sometimes life is just complicated.  When it comes to the future of marketing, I believe having an eye for simplicity and the discipline to focus are key success factors.Throughout the presentation, Chris saw the simple in the complex, understood the need for focus, valued the currency of time, talked about the human need for comfort, and the fact that comfort is often found in simplicity. I thought a lot about where simplicity breaks down in my world as a marketer, and for me it is often when there is a loss of focus.  I would say I am a pretty goal oriented person and staying focused on those goals and how to achieve them gives me the discipline I need to stay on target. That being said one of the biggest things that can challenge my focus is the sheer volume and variety of data I have coming at me real time. Social, CRM, financial data, customer experience…I have a headache just thinking about the sheer volume of it all.

How do you connect all the dots? How do you uncover the story? How do you focus on the data that matters? It all comes back once again to simplicity and focus.  Focus on the business problem you are trying to solve, the key questions you need to answer and the ability to go from data to insights and deliver those insights in a way that makes them relevant to those who need to make the decisions. That’s a lot of what we do here at CMB.

This brings me to the next quote I jotted down that really hit home; “less is more, but less is harder.” It takes discipline to focus on the one or two things your product or service does really well because the temptation to try to be all things to all people is so great.  It also takes that same kind of discipline to focus on the key data sources and points you need to make a decision, and the confidence tune out the rest.

Simplicity requires focus, and focus often drives results.  This point rang true again in a recent study from the Marketing Leadership Council. They reported the best performing marketers are the “Focusers,” those who prefer depth of focus over breadth. Unfortunately, the same study also found that most CMOs’ are looking for someone very different from the Focuser. They are looking for the “Agile” marketer, those who are early adopters of technology who embrace change and are fast movers. Ironically, the Agile marketer often suffers from lack of focus and fell to the bottom of the list when rated by their manager on performance.

We all desperately need simplicity and focus, but how do you find it within this complex (and growing more complex every day!) world?  The answer is not to rely solely on the “agile” person who embraces every change and is quick to bounce from technology to technology.  Instead, the answer is cultivating a culture where people can be focused, and not become distracted in an ocean of data and by shiny new objects.

Kristen is CMB’s VP of marketing, an adjunct professor at Boston College Carroll School of Management and a mom of two. You can follow her on Twitter at @KristenGarvey

The recent research study showing that marketers rank lower than politicians on the “respectability scale” might feel like a kick in the gut for most of us in this role. 

From the research: only 13% of consumers agree that marketing benefits society.  It’s no surprise that teachers, scientists and engineers are the top of the list, but marketing even falls below bankers (32%), lawyers (34%), and politicians (18%). One point of solace, marketers are tied with actors and dancers; so, we’re not alone.

If we deconstruct the research, we can find plenty to take issue with.  What research study isn’t immune to that?  For instance, the focus of the research is about online advertising, while the questions about professional respectability come after questions about the effectiveness of different marketing methods.  To what extent has this approach primed respondents in a certain direction?

Additionally, when you look more deeply at the results, you find that people still “respect” the need for marketing within business.  Most, in fact, consider it “strategic” and necessary for sales.

So, the research findings shouldn’t be taken too personally.  As noted earlier, marketers are in the same boat as actors and dancers.  It makes me think of Ode by Arthur O’Shaughnessy:

We are the music makers,
And we are the dreamers of dreams,
Wandering by lone sea-breakers
And sitting by desolate streams;—
World-losers and world-forsakers,
On whom the pale moon gleams:
Yet we are the movers and shakers
Of the world for ever, it seems.

Or, as the great Willy Wonka puts it:

Who but a marketer would ever create lickable wallpaper with snozzberry flavor???

So marketers, don’t give up on your role and profession. And remember that without you, the world would be a place with much less flavor and much less fun.

When Jeff's not busy contributing to society at large, he serves as a senior consultant and methodologist for CMB; making sense of big data, and speaking on topics like mobile and the future of market research.